The UK is sleepwalking into a crisis of care for older people due to combination of a rapidly ageing population and a lack of NHS workforce planning, according to the Royal College of Physicians (RCP).
Analysis by the RCP shows there is the equivalent of just one full time geriatrician per 8,031 people over the age of 65 in England.
The RCP’s data, pooled from its own census of physicians alongside population data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows the NHS is “woefully underprepared” to cope with an aging population, it said.
The ONS estimates that by 2040 there will be over 17m people in the UK aged 65 and above, meaning 24 per cent of the population may potentially require geriatric care.
“Unless government commits to publishing regular assessments of the number of staff needed to deliver care, the NHS will be flying blind on staffing,” it added.
The extent of workforce shortages ranges across the country.
The East Midlands fares the worst with one full time geriatrician per 12,561 people over the age of 65, but figures across all regions are stark, with the most well-resourced area, Central and North East London, having one full time geriatrician per 3,254 people aged over 65.
“With 48 per cent of consultant geriatricians in England set to retire within the next 10 years, we could be on the threshold of a dramatic drop off if we don’t act now to retain as many of them as possible,” the RCP said.
Despite these trends, there is currently no publicly available data on the number of staff the NHS needs to train now to meet future demand for care.
“That’s why the RCP, along with over 100 medical organisations, is supporting an amendment to the Health and Care Bill which would require the government to publish regular, independent assessments of the numbers of staff the NHS and social care system need now and in future.
“The amendment, tabled by Baroness Cumberlege with support from former NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens now Lord Stevens of Birmingham, will be debated in the House of Lords this week.”
RCP president Andrew Goddard (pictured) said: “The workforce crisis we’re facing is largely down to an astonishing lack of planning. All successful organisations rely on long-term workforce planning to meet demand and it’s absurd that we don’t do this for the NHS and social care system.
“The government needs to accept the amendment put forward by Baroness Cumberlege and make workforce planning a priority.”
Responding to the RCP's warning, Danny Mortimer, chief executive of NHS Employers and deputy chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “To be able to plan effectively for a future workforce, healthcare leaders need clarity in the shape of a clear long-term workforce plan.
“Sajid Javid’s recent commissioning of a workforce strategy is a very welcome step, but as the government’s Health and Care Bill continues through Parliament, we would urge the government to accept amendments requiring the health secretary to publish regular, independent assessments of the numbers of staff the NHS and social care system need now and in future."
